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Market Pulse June 29 to July 3: Global markets open the week in cautious recovery mode after a turbulent prior week driven by a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions. US strikes on Iranian military targets over the weekend rattled investor confidence, with Washington citing Iranian attacks along the Strait of Hormuz as the trigger, while President Trump warned of further military action — raising the spectre of a broader Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 2% and 4.6% respectively last week, with Nvidia and Alphabet each dropping more than 8%, and Meta, Apple, and Amazon declining more than 4%. Energy markets remain on edge, with Brent crude gaining around 0.8% to $72 a barrel and WTI rising to $70 on supply disruption concerns, while gold eased slightly as some risk appetite returned on ceasefire signals.
Into this shortened holiday week, sentiment has stabilised somewhat. US equity futures advanced as peace talks between the US and Iran were broached, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.6%, and Dow futures edging up 0.3%. The VIX has pulled back to around 18.4, suggesting markets are cautiously pricing in de-escalation rather than a prolonged conflict premium. Defensives continue to outperform — healthcare names led the Dow higher last week, with Merck and Johnson & Johnson posting double-digit gains. The key macro catalyst this week shifts to Thursday, when the June jobs report will be released a day early due to the July 4 holiday — a pivotal read on the US labour market that will heavily influence Fed rate expectations and set the tone for risk assets heading into Q3.
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